Earth Surveillance · Safi Capital / IFU · April 2026
Portfolio Intelligence Dashboard
Capital Client · El Lago Nicaragua Phase 1 (100 ha active) · Guatemala Phase 2 scoped · EUR 10M blended demonstration · Click any metric for detail
NDVI · El Lago
0.892
100% high class
↑ +43.6% since 2020
CO₂ stock
89t
311 tCO₂e/ha satellite
↑ Verra VM0047 baseline
Carbon pipeline
62%
Data sufficiency
⚠ 80% threshold Q3 2026
EUDR compliance
100%
All shipments · live
↑ Per-shipment auto
Taxonomy alignment
91%
EU Green Bond Std
↑ Above 85% covenant
Cacao yield vs plan
94%
Q1 2026
↑ Above 80% covenant
ICR covenant
1.8×
Min ≥1.2×
↑ 0.6× headroom
Scope 3 coverage
38%
Target 50% Yr 1
⚠ SLL ratchet risk
Deforest alerts 30d
0
5 km buffer
↑ Clean · WRI GFW
Disease status
Clear
Gaian AI scan
↑ No pathogens
CO₂ sequestration forecast — El Lago 95 ha
Click bars or points · adjust horizon + thinning below
Horizon:
2033
Thin:
30%
Live alert feed
ALL CLEARNDVI sync — 100% high class
2m ago
Carbon pipeline: 62% sufficiency
18m ago
Plot 20b CO₂: 54t — highest density
1h ago
Scope 3 coverage at 38% — watch
3h ago
Soil pH 6.4 — optimal
1d ago
Investment structure — blended finance
EUR 10M DEMO
| Investor | Role | Amount | Status | Timing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDF | First-loss anchor | EUR 5M | Proposal | Q2 2026 |
| IFU | SDG Fund co-invest | EUR 8–12M | Exploratory | Q2 2026 |
| IDB Invest | LatAm agri debt | EUR 15–20M | Outreach | Q2 2026 |
| FMO | Processor SLL | EUR 10–15M | Initiated | Q2 2026 |
| Pension Funds | Scale capital | EUR 100M+ | Phase 2–3 | 2027–28 |
Phase deployment
Phase 1 · El Lago, NicaraguaACTIVE
100 ha · Baseline complete · NDVI verified · EUDR live
62% → 80% VM0047 threshold · Q3 2026
Phase 2 · Guatemala 500 ha + OutgrowersSCOPED
Q3 2026 · Scope 3 inserts · outgrower GPS registration
18% · Scoping and site selection
Phase 3 · Regional scale2027
Green bond · NDF / IDB Invest / FMO · EUR 100M+
5% · DFI outreach initiated
Natural Capital · Environmental Integrity
The collateral behind the green instrument
6 parameters · Sentinel-2 + Forsler field data + E-Ledger · Click any row or chart element
NDVI mean
0.892
100% high class · Sentinel-2
↑ +43.6% delta since 2020
CO₂ stock
89t
36,968 trees · 95.38 ha
↑ 311 tCO₂e/ha satellite
Deforest alerts 30d
0
5 km buffer · WRI GFW
↑ Clear
Soil pH
6.4
Optimal 5.5–7.0 · SoilSense
↑ Stable
NDVI — 16-year satellite record
SENTINEL-2
2010 baseline: cattle grazing (0.212) → 2026: established cacao-hardwood (0.892)
Species inventory — March 2026
17/18 LOTES| Species | Role | DBH avg | CO₂ density |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genízaro | Shade/N-fixing | 129.0 cm | Very high |
| Neem | Hardwood/pest | 105.6 cm | High |
| Melina | Timber/canopy | 83.2 cm | High |
| Tuma Yellow Cacao | Primary crop | 48.0 cm | Medium |
| Gliricidia + others | Understorey | 20–35 cm | Biodiversity |
Raccoon (Procyon lotor) presence confirmed · Positive biodiversity indicator · Acoustic monitoring Q2 2026
Plot-level CO₂ — Forsler field calculations
E-LEDGER ANCHORED
| Plot | Category | Area (ha) | Stamtal | Vedmasse m³ | CO₂ (t) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20b | Skov, separacion | 0.47 | 1,016 | 43 | 43–54 | MRV |
| 20a | Skov, separacion | 0.64 | 100 | 11 | 14–38 | MRV |
| 14a | Skov, lotes | 6.37 | 60 | 2 | 3–9 | GROWING |
| Est. 1–10 | Monitoring stations | — | — | — | Monitoring | MRV ANC. |
| TOTAL (51 plots) | — | 95.38 | 36,968 | 71 | 89 | BASELINE |
Financial & Production Performance
What IFU's investment committee reads quarterly
Yield · Premiums · Carbon revenue · Covenants · FX · Scope 3 · Click any covenant row for full detail
Cacao yield vs plan
94%
Q1 2026 · 80% covenant
↑ 14% above covenant minimum
Ecological premium coverage
38%
$310/t · target 50% Yr 1
⚠ SLL ratchet risk at <50%
Carbon pipeline
62%
Data sufficiency · 80% target
⚠ Q3 2026 threshold date
ICR
1.8×
Covenant: ≥1.2×
↑ 0.6× headroom
DSCR
1.4×
Covenant: ≥1.1×
↑ 0.3× headroom
FX hedge ratio
78%
USD/NIO · covenant ≥70%
↑ 8% above covenant
Carbon pipeline to first issuance
62%
Methodology
Verra VM0047
Verra VM0047
Target date
Q3 2026
Q3 2026
Est. volume
12–18 t/yr
12–18 t/yr
Dual premium model
Taste premium — procurement budget
Genetics · fermentation · Tuma Yellow variety · already captured
Current rate~$300/t above bulk
Ecological premium — ESG budget (new)
Scope 3 verified · EUDR compliant · carbon certified · ES data
Current rate / coverage$310/t · 38% of shipments
38% → 50% Year 1 SLL covenant
Loan covenant dashboard
4 MET1 WATCH
| Covenant | Actual | Threshold | Headroom | Frequency | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICR | 1.8× | ≥1.2× | +0.6× | Quarterly | MET |
| DSCR | 1.4× | ≥1.1× | +0.3× | Quarterly | MET |
| SLL KPI — Scope 3 | 38% | ≥50% Yr 1 | −12% | Quarterly | WATCH |
| EUDR compliance | 100% | 100% | On target | Per shipment | MET |
| FX hedge USD/NIO | 78% | ≥70% | +8% | Monthly | MET |
| EU GBS taxonomy | 91% | ≥85% | +6% | Quarterly | MET |
Compliance & Regulatory · Licence to Operate
EUR 150M+ market access — six regulatory parameters
EUDR · CSRD · EU GBS · CBAM · E-Ledger · TNFD/EBAN · Click any row for full breach consequences
EUDR passports
100%
Per-shipment · auto
↑ All shipments live
CSRD Scope 3
38%
Coverage of exports
⚠ → 80% Year 1 target
EU GBS alignment
91%
Covenant ≥85%
↑ +6% above minimum
CBAM readiness
Pre-pos.
Not in scope yet
Q1 2027 first report
E-Asset score (TNFD)
74/100
Biodiversity baseline
↑ Annual reporting
E-Ledger double-count
0
Events all-time
↑ Blockchain verified
Full regulatory compliance matrix
3 ACTIVE1 BUILDING2 PRE-POS.
| Regulation | What it requires | ES role | Current status | Alert threshold | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUDR | GPS polygon + deforest-free proof per shipment | Auto digital passport per lot | 100% · Live | Any missed passport | ACTIVE |
| CSRD Scope 3 | Scope 3 emissions from agri supply chain | Scope 3 Inserts per shipment | 38% coverage | <50% → SLL ratchet | BUILDING |
| EU Green Bond Std | ≥85% proceeds taxonomy-aligned · verified data | E-Ledger KPI data feed | 91% aligned | <85% = bond reclassified | MET |
| CBAM | Carbon pricing on imports · agri expansion expected | Carbon intensity data pre-logged | Pre-position | Legislative watch | PRE-POS. |
| TNFD / EBAN | Nature-related financial disclosure · biodiversity accounting | E-Asset score + acoustic + eDNA | 74/100 | >10% score decline | ANNUAL |
| E-Ledger double-count | Each tonne claimed exactly once · blockchain verified | On-chain audit continuous | 0 events | Any event = escalate | CLEAN |
Country & Operational Risk · Six Dimensions
ES country risk framework — active portfolio
WRI GFW · Columbia CliF · Coface/Allianz · Gaian AI disease detection · Click any cell or country for full detail
Deforest risk NI
Green
WRI GFW 2025 trend stable
↑ No primary loss in buffer
Fire events 30d
0
10 km buffer · FIRMS
↑ Clear · dry season watch
Crop disease status
Clear
Gaian AI scan Apr 2026
↑ No pathogens detected
Land tenure NI
Secure
Title confirmed · no disputes
↑ GPS polygon registered
Policy risk NI
Yellow
Ortega governance watch
⚠ REDD+ active but monitor
GT Phase 2 EUDR
Low
Guatemala readiness
ES deployment critical path
Country risk matrix — all six dimensions
| Country | Deforest. | Climate/Fire | Policy | Disease | Tenure | EUDR ready | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicaragua 🇳🇮 | Green | Yellow | Yellow | Green | Green | Partial | YELLOW-G |
| Guatemala 🇬🇹 | Yellow | Yellow | Green | Yellow | Yellow | Low | YELLOW |
| Colombia 🇨🇴 | Yellow | Green | Green | Green | Yellow | Partial | GREEN-Y |
Gaian AI — pathogen surveillance
CLEAR · APR 2026GAIAN AI · PATHOGEN SCAN · 28 APR 2026
No pathogens detected across 17/18 lotes. 60 Tuma Yellow Cacao trees analysed in 2 minutes. No frosty pod rot indicators. No witches' broom signature. 1 plot flagged for visual follow-up — non-pathogenic bark discolouration.
Frosty pod rot (M. roreri)
Most destructive cacao pathogen · 2min AI detection
ClearWitches' broom
Moniliophthora perniciosa
ClearVascular streak dieback
Ceratobasidium theobromae
ClearVisual follow-up required
1 plot · mechanical bark discolouration
1 plotSDG Impact Reporting · IFU Mandate
What IFU reports to Ministry & pension LPs
SDG 13 · SDG 15 · SDG 8 · SDG 17 · MRV-grade · E-Ledger sourced · Annual reporting cycle
SDG 13 · Climate action
89t
CO₂ sequestered · Phase 1
↑ 2026 MRV baseline
SDG 15 · Life on land
74/100
E-Asset score · baseline
↑ Biodiversity Year 3
SDG 8 · Decent work
+18–24%
Farm income additionality
↑ $310/t ecological premium
SDG 17 · Partnerships
4
DFI institutions engaged
↑ NDF · IFU · IDB · FMO
SDG 13 — CO₂ sequestration projections
IPCC TIER 2
SDG 8 & 17 — Income & partnerships
SDG 8 — New income for producers
Ecological premium
$310/t · 38% shipments · new stream
LiveCarbon credit income
12–18 t/yr · $15–48/t · Q3 2026
PipelineOutgrower network
500 ha Phase 2 · Guatemala · Q3 2026
ScopedSDG 17 — Partnerships
| Institution | Role | SDG relevance | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| NDF | Catalytic capital | SDGs 13, 15 | Proposal |
| IFU | DFI mandate | SDGs 8, 13, 17 | Exploratory |
| CBI | Certification | SDG 17 | Scoped |
Gaian AI · Open Multi-LLM · RAG Grounded
Ask the portfolio data
El Lago knowledge scope active · Forsler + Sentinel-2 + species inventory + covenant data loaded · Verified citations — not hallucinations
IFU committee summary
VM0047 risk analysis
Dual premium explainer
Scope 3 breach consequences
12-year CO₂ projection
GT EUDR critical path
GAIAN · EL LAGO CONTEXT ACTIVE
Forsler + Sentinel-2 + species inventory + covenant data loaded · 13 RAG citation sources
G
El Lago intelligence context loaded. I have access to: NDVI 0.892 (100% HIGH class, delta +43.6% since 2020), CO₂ stock 89t (311 tCO₂e/ha satellite), species inventory (Genízaro 129cm, Neem 105.6cm, Melina 83.2cm), Forsler plot calculations, covenant status, and the full regulatory compliance matrix. [E1–E13]
Carbon pipeline at 62% sufficiency — 18% below the 80% VM0047 threshold. EUDR compliance 100%. Scope 3 coverage 38% — watch item. Click a preset above or ask me anything about the portfolio.
Carbon pipeline at 62% sufficiency — 18% below the 80% VM0047 threshold. EUDR compliance 100%. Scope 3 coverage 38% — watch item. Click a preset above or ask me anything about the portfolio.
RETRIEVAL · El Lago knowledge base · 13 sources
E-Ledger · Blockchain Audit Log
On-chain verification — El Lago
Every certificate claim · thinning event · EUDR passport · Scope 3 insert · Click any transaction for full on-chain detail
Last commit
14m ago
Block #4,847,291
↑ Chain healthy
Double-count events
0
All-time · audit clean
↑ ERC-3643 enforced
EUDR passports issued
47
This year · 100% valid
↑ Per-shipment · live
Carbon certs pending
1
Step 1/4 · 62% sufficiency
⚠ Q3 2026 issuance target
Recent chain transactions
ETHEREUM + POLYGON
| Tx hash | Type | Plot / asset | Value | Block | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x2e4f…a9c1 | NDVI observation | El Lago · 95 ha | NDVI 0.892 | 4,847,291 | Confirmed |
| 0x8b1a…f34e | EUDR passport | Shipment #47 · 2,400 kg | Valid · EU entry | 4,847,120 | Confirmed |
| 0x5c9d…7b2f | Scope 3 insert | Buyer B · Shipment #47 | 0.18 tCO₂e/t | 4,847,119 | Confirmed |
| 0xd3a7…1e08 | CO₂ calculation | Plot 20b · 0.47 ha | 43–54 t CO₂ | 4,846,890 | Confirmed |
| 0x1f6b…c4d9 | Land use cert | El Lago · 95.38 ha | $2–8/ha | 4,846,500 | Confirmed |
Complete Parameter Register · 23 Parameters · 5 Categories
All monitoring parameters — Safi Capital / IFU
Click any row for full definition · source · threshold · alert logic · breach consequence
| # | Parameter | Category | Current value | Threshold / alert | Frequency | Status |
|---|
Detail